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從金融、零售、醫(yī)療健康到內(nèi)容產(chǎn)業(yè)，數(shù)字化浪潮正在席卷所有產(chǎn)業(yè)，沒有哪個(gè)行業(yè)可以遠(yuǎn)離數(shù)字化而生存。

美國商業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu) Business Insider（下文簡稱“BI”） 提出：2020年將是數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型的落地元年。

BI在近期發(fā)布的《2020年度重要科技趨勢預(yù)測報(bào)告》（30 Big Tech Predictions for 2020）中，針對銀行業(yè)、通訊技術(shù)、數(shù)字化媒體、電商支付、金融科技及數(shù)字醫(yī)療六大領(lǐng)域提出了前瞻預(yù)測。（全文中文版已由鈦媒體翻譯出品，加入鈦媒體Pro即可下載全文，注冊成為鈦媒體Pro會員：http://m.tmtpost.com/pro 。）

其中，針對數(shù)字化媒體行業(yè)，BI提出了五大趨勢預(yù)測，鈦媒體編譯如下（本文為中英雙語對照）：

2019 marked a major year of transformation in digital media: Tech giants including Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon faced mounting regulatory scrutiny from US lawmakers on multiple fronts, including antitrust, data privacy, and messaging;

2019年對于數(shù)字化媒體來說是重要的變革之年。過去一年中，谷歌、Facebook、蘋果和亞馬遜在內(nèi)的科技巨頭，均面臨著美國立法者在反壟斷、數(shù)據(jù)隱私、信息傳遞方面更為嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管審查。

Media giants including Disney launched or announced they would launch new streaming video services as cord-cutting losses accelerated; Spotify invested heavily in podcasting and we saw the launch of the buzzy subscription podcast experiment Luminary; and emergent platforms and media experiences exploded into the mainstream, including short-form video-sharing app TikTok, free-to-play digital games like Fortnite, and live-streaming platforms like Twitch and Mixer. 

媒體巨頭迪士尼宣布推出新的流媒體服務(wù)（可參考閱讀鈦媒體深度報(bào)道 《迪士尼們合圍Netflix》），以應(yīng)對電視訂閱服務(wù)的虧損擴(kuò)大；Spotify推出播客平臺并大量投入，同時(shí)業(yè)內(nèi)也出現(xiàn)了諸如 Luminary 這樣的會員訂閱制播客平臺。實(shí)時(shí)直播和體驗(yàn)式內(nèi)容平臺迅速地成為了內(nèi)容主流，包括短視頻分享平臺 TikTok，免費(fèi)數(shù)字游戲 Fortnite，實(shí)時(shí)在線流媒體平臺 Twitch 和 Mixer 等。

Based on the year’s developments, our own proprietary research, and industry trends we’re watching unfold, here are our top five predictions for the digital media space in 2020.

基于今年的發(fā)展，和我們自己的專有研究，以及我們正在觀察的行業(yè)趨勢，以下是我們對2020年數(shù)字媒體領(lǐng)域的五大預(yù)測。

1. Spotify will grow to account for 25% of global podcast listening as it doubles down on discoverability and exclusive original content — and much of that share will come directly from Apple.

1.全球播客市場中，Spotify將因其內(nèi)容的可探索度和獨(dú)創(chuàng)性攫取25%的客戶。蘋果仍將獲取大部分的市場份額。

Despite Android's dominance worldwide, Apple dominates podcast listening via its Podcasts app, with 63% market share as of February 2019, per Libsyn analysis of App Annie data. But Spotify has already become the second-largest podcast platform,with about 10% share of listening, double its 5% share in December 2017. And in recent months, Spotify has seen significant increases in listening as it invests more aggressively in the space: About 14% of Spotify's MAU base now listen to podcasts, and total podcast hours streamed jumped 39% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2019.

根據(jù)Annie2019年2月的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，盡管安卓在全球占主導(dǎo)地位,蘋果主導(dǎo)了播客收聽?wèi)?yīng)用，占據(jù)了市場的63%。但Spotify已經(jīng)成為了第二大播客平臺，占據(jù)了10%的市場份額，與2017年12月5%的份額相比翻番。在最近幾個(gè)月的大規(guī)模投入之下，Spotify平臺的音頻流量有了顯著增長，14%的MAU來自音頻用戶，并且全部流媒體時(shí)長在2019年第三季度季比季增長了39%。

We think Spotify will drive further podcast listening on its app thanks to an emphasis on discoverability and original content — its two biggest advantages over Apple:

我們認(rèn)為Spotify的發(fā)展會進(jìn)一步推動客戶端播客的發(fā)展，這得益于其與蘋果相比內(nèi)容的可發(fā)現(xiàn)性和原創(chuàng)性。

• Discoverability. Apple Podcasts currently has greater volume (800,000 podcasts) versus Spotify (500,000), but we expect that discoverability is more valuable than sheer content volume, which is meaningless if users struggle to find shows they're interested in. In terms of enhancing discovery, we believe Spotify's emphasis on expanding algorithm-driven personalized playlists — an approach it has honed with music — will beat Apple's emphasis on indexing. In June, Apple promised search enhancements on Podcasts, but these features are likely still limited.

● 可發(fā)現(xiàn)性：蘋果播客目前有超過80萬容量的內(nèi)容，高于Spotify的50萬。但是我們認(rèn)為內(nèi)容的可搜索性比純粹的容量更重要——譬如，用戶若很難在界面中找到自己喜歡的節(jié)目，體驗(yàn)感就會很差。在加強(qiáng)節(jié)目的可發(fā)現(xiàn)性方面，Spotify強(qiáng)調(diào)用算法驅(qū)動個(gè)性化播放列表——一種方法來優(yōu)化音樂內(nèi)容，這會打敗蘋果強(qiáng)調(diào)普通索引的方式。去年6月，蘋果承諾將會強(qiáng)化播客的搜索功能，但是這些功能似乎依然有局限性。

• Exclusive original shows. To boost orig-inals development — which we expect can drive loyalty — Spotify spent $400 million in 2019 on podcast-focused acquisitions, including Parcast and Gimlet Media, and struck output deals with mega-talent including the Obamas, Jordan Peele, and Mark Wahlberg. All told, it boasts a slate of more than 30 Spotify-exclusive pods. For its part, Apple has reportedly sought exclusive podcast rights, but so far has no exclusive shows of its own.

● 獨(dú)家原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容：為了提升用戶的忠誠度，加速原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容的發(fā)展，Spotify在2019年耗資4億美元用于播客相關(guān)的并購，包括Parcast和Gimlet Media；還有與奧巴馬夫婦、Jordan Peele和Mark Wahlberg達(dá)成了人才輸出協(xié)議。這使得Spotify擁有了超過30個(gè)專屬播客內(nèi)容。就目前而言，蘋果正在尋求節(jié)目的獨(dú)家播放權(quán)，但到目前為止還沒有自己的獨(dú)家節(jié)目。

主要播客App的市場占有率

2. Video game developers will add commerce features that go beyond in-game purchases, following the lead of social platforms that have seen success with shopping integrations.

2.視頻游戲開發(fā)商在試水社交功能能夠成功實(shí)現(xiàn)交易（收入）后，將不再局限于游戲內(nèi)購買的商業(yè)模式。

2019 has been a big year for shopping integrations across social media: Platforms from Snapchat to Instagram have been building shopping into the user experience in order to eliminate friction in the advertisement to purchase funnel.

2019年是社交媒體購物整合的重要一年：從Snapchat到Instagram等平臺一直將購物以用戶體驗(yàn)的方式呈現(xiàn)，以此來消除廣告購買渠道中的摩擦。

As more users pick up on this behavior, the opportunity for wider integration across the digital landscape will blossom — and carry over into the gaming world. 

隨著越來越多的用戶注意到這種行為，跨數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的更廣泛整合的機(jī)會將會開花結(jié)果，并延伸到游戲世界。

Video games have long offered in-game purchases that allow users to advance levels, change their in-game avatar's outfit, or unlock key features. And as gaming becomes increasingly mainstream — there are now over 2.5 billion gamers worldwide, up from 2.3 billion in 2018, per Newzoo — as a destination for both gameplay and for socializing, video game publishers could begin to build out broader commerce features to further monetize those users.

視頻游戲通過內(nèi)購來升級、獲取裝備或解鎖隱藏關(guān)卡的模式已經(jīng)由來已久。并且隨著游戲變得越來越主流——從2018年的23億增加到了如今全球超過25億的游戲玩家，基于娛樂和社交，視頻游戲開發(fā)商可以開發(fā)更多的商業(yè)功能用于變現(xiàn)。

For instance, if a player purchases a certain kind of sneaker for their in-game avatar, they may eventually wish to purchase those shoes in real life as well. Game publishers could facilitate that sort of shopping behavior through  a portal that matches up in-game and physical products, and which pulls from payment information that’s already on hand due to previous in-game purchases.

例如，如果玩家為他們的游戲角色購買了《阿凡達(dá)》式運(yùn)動鞋，他們可能最終也希望在現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中購買這些鞋子。游戲發(fā)行商可以通過一個(gè)將游戲內(nèi)產(chǎn)品和實(shí)體產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行匹配的門戶網(wǎng)站來促進(jìn)這類購物行為，該門戶網(wǎng)站還可以獲取由于之前的游戲內(nèi)購買而產(chǎn)生的支付信息。

Such integrations also create space for creative promotions, like exclusive products that are only available to those playing a new season of a game or to those who have reached a certain level in a game, creating a virtuous cycle for game publishers.

這樣的整合也為創(chuàng)意推廣創(chuàng)造了空間，比如，獨(dú)家產(chǎn)品只對新一季游戲玩家或游戲中達(dá)到一定水平的玩家開放，為游戲發(fā)行商創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)良性循環(huán)。

Some publishers and brands have already joined together for deals that approximate this behavior:

The wildly popular game League of Legends, which makes money from in-game purchases, recently inked a partnership with luxury brand Louis Vuitton. For the partnership, Louis Vuitton created a capsule collection and designed skins for LoL avatars. The collection, which launched on its own site, sold out in Europe in less than an hour. And earlier this year, Adidas designed a Snapchat game to launch a pair of cleats, which included an option for users to “try on” the shoes within the game.

一些游戲發(fā)行商和品牌方已經(jīng)聯(lián)合起來進(jìn)行類似交易: 廣受歡迎的游戲《英雄聯(lián)盟》，最近就和奢侈品牌路易威登簽了合作協(xié)議。為了合作，路易威登創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)膠囊收集和設(shè)計(jì)皮膚的LoL化身。這個(gè)系列自從在其官網(wǎng)上推出后，在歐洲不足一個(gè)小時(shí)便售罄。今年早些時(shí)候，Adidas還設(shè)計(jì)了一款Snapchat的游戲，推出了“試穿”功能。

3.The 2020 US election will be a breaking point for social platform content moderation,leading US lawmakers to propose legislation that regulates the space in 2021.

3.2020年的美國大選，將是社交平臺內(nèi)容溫和化的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，并將促使2021年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)內(nèi)容的監(jiān)管立法工作。

The 2016 US presidential election dredged up a great deal of public concern about the role social platforms play in disseminating misinformation. Since then, the major social platforms have undergone multiple congressional investigations on the matter, made changes to content policy and enforcement, and their CEOs have issued grandiose promises to solve the problem of content moderation. The result has been a set of disparate policies and approaches to content moderation, spanning issues from political advertising to hate speech.

2016年的美國總統(tǒng)大選，引發(fā)了公眾對社交平臺在傳播中產(chǎn)生的誤導(dǎo)信息的極大關(guān)注。從那以后，主要的社交平臺經(jīng)歷了國會對此事的調(diào)查，修改了一些內(nèi)容政策，并且這些平臺的CEO都對于解決內(nèi)容中立的問題做出了鄭重的承諾。自此，一系列不同的政策和方法都用于促進(jìn)內(nèi)容的中立，包括政治宣傳和仇恨類言論。

These policies have all been implemented with mixed results, but the 2020 election will likely serve as a stress test measuring the efficacy of these efforts. On the whole, we think the election will highlight platform vulnerabilities, and that misinformation and other harmful election-related content will spread on their platforms, and initiate a second round of public and regulatory outcry.

這些政策的實(shí)施帶來的結(jié)果有利有弊。不過，2020年大選被認(rèn)為是這些措施出臺是否合理的壓力考量。總的來說，這次大選會將會放大社交平臺的脆弱性、信息誤導(dǎo)性和其它與選舉相關(guān)的傷害性內(nèi)容，并且會引來第二輪公眾和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的呼吁。

That will ultimately lead US officials to propose comprehensive legislation that regulates content moderation on social platforms, and we think they’ll follow the European Union’s lead on the issue.The EU has become the agenda-setter in terms of digital policy, as legislation like GDPR has become the framework for global data privacy regulation, for instance.

這最終會使美國官方提出社交媒體內(nèi)容審核方面的綜合立法，并且我們希望他們能夠效仿歐盟在這方面的做法。在數(shù)字政策方面，歐盟已經(jīng)成為議程制定者，就像GDPR已成為全球數(shù)字隱私條例的框架。

 Along those same lines, we expect US lawmakers to borrow from the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plans to roll out new, comprehensive legislation aimed at liability and safety on digital platforms, called the Digital Services Act, within the next two years.

與此同時(shí)，在未來兩年，我們希望美國立法人員能夠借鑒歐盟主席提出的數(shù)字服務(wù)計(jì)劃（Digital Service Act），制定新的、全面的立法來完善數(shù)字平臺的安全可靠性。

4. In 2020, the streaming wars will be defined by promotion-fueled growth for new-to-market services, setting the stage for a service shakeout in 2021 as these offers expire.

4.流媒體領(lǐng)域的市場增長，主要得益于各平臺對其新產(chǎn)品的推廣力度（廣告投放等）。到2021年，隨著新品競爭的投放/推廣收縮，流媒體市場熱度將見消退。

The SVOD streaming wars will finally become a reality in 2020 as the major new SVODs will have all come to market by April 2020, including Disney+, Apple TV+, and HBO Max.

到2020年4月，包括Disney+、Apple TV+還有 HBO Max 在內(nèi)的流媒體服務(wù)都要先后上市，因此，SVOD流媒體戰(zhàn)爭終于要在今年打響了。

Broadly, we expect that new-to-market services will grow significantly in their first years on the market and that the bulk of subscriber growth in 2020 will stem from distribution partnerships that expose them to operator customer bases, offer promotional discounts, or bundle services.

大體來說，我們認(rèn)為這些新興入局的流媒體會在先期幾年大規(guī)模增長用戶。2020年，用戶增長的主要部分將來自分銷合作伙伴關(guān)系，這些關(guān)系使它們能接觸到運(yùn)營商的客戶群，提供促銷折扣或捆綁服務(wù)。

For example, Disney’s partnership with Verizon offers unlimited wireless customers and new Fios or 5G broadband customers a year of Disney+ free; Apple will offer a year of Apple TV+ free with new device purchase; and AT&T will offer HBO Max free to all customers who already subscribe to HBO.

譬如，迪士尼和合作伙伴Version給無線用戶和新的Fios或5G寬帶用戶提供一年免費(fèi)的Disney+業(yè)務(wù)；蘋果將為購買蘋果電視的用戶提供一年免費(fèi)的Apple TV+服務(wù)；AT&T將為已經(jīng)購買HBO會員的用戶提供免費(fèi)的HBO MAX服務(wù)。

As a result, some of these offers could artificially inflate the base on new-to-market services beyond actual consumer demand in their first year — but for the most part, that won’t catch up with services until 2021.

總之，在第一年，這些捆綁服務(wù)會人為地抬高新市場用戶的原本需求。但最主要的是，這些服務(wù)平臺要到2021年才能趕上老牌流媒體的服務(wù)水平。

Here’s what we expect to characterize 2020 for four of the major streaming services:

以下是我們對2020年四大流媒體服務(wù)的展望:

1）Netflix will remain dominant, but will become increasingly reliant on international subscriber growth. Netflix is a must-have among US streaming households, with an estimated 87% penetration, pereMarketer estimates.

1) Netflix會持續(xù)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，但會更加依賴國際業(yè)務(wù)。

Netflix’s outsize investment in original content — $15 billion in 2020 — will enable it to remain a foundational service in the US, but domestic growth will slow further due to market saturation and likely as major new entrants draw interest. That will cause the service to push harder for international growth: Since 2015, international markets have collectively contributed at least two-thirds (66%) of quarterly sub additions.

Netflix是美國人必備的流媒體家庭服務(wù)，據(jù)pereMaketer數(shù)據(jù),市場滲透率達(dá)87%。Netflix預(yù)計(jì)在2020年將投入150億美金用于原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容制作，使其能維持在美國作為基礎(chǔ)流媒體服務(wù)的地位。但由于市場的飽和和新玩家的入局，其國內(nèi)增長會進(jìn)一步放緩。這會使之投入更多精力用于海外市場的增長：自2015年，國際市場為Netflix貢獻(xiàn)了至少66%的季度增長。

2）Disney+ subscriber growth will exceed internal expectations sooner than expected, hitting at least 60 million subs in its first year on the market.

2) Disney+用戶增長將超過內(nèi)部期望，預(yù)計(jì)上市第一年至少達(dá)到6000萬用戶數(shù)。

Disney expects Disney+ to have 60-90 million global subs by 2024. But if growth continues at its current pace, the service already looks likely to blow its own projections out of the water — the service reached 10 million sign-ups in its first 24 hours. And as of December 11, the app had been downloaded to mobile devices 22 million times, per app-tracking firm Apptopia.

到2024年，迪士尼希望獲得6000-9000萬的國際用戶。但如果其保持現(xiàn)有的增長速率，這個(gè)目標(biāo)看似很容易實(shí)現(xiàn)——在Disney+上線24小時(shí)內(nèi)就獲得了1000萬注冊量。根據(jù)Apptopia的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，截至12月11日，該應(yīng)用的移動端下載量已達(dá)2200萬次。

Interest in Disney+ among US consumers is high: 43% said they would subscribe, as of mid-August, per UBS. We expect that Disney+ will gain subs fast in the first half of the year thanks to its distribution dealwith Verizon, which exposes it to at least 17 million customers, while growth in the second half of the year will be powered by its expansion into new markets, including in Western Europe (March 2020) and Southeast Asia (H2 2020).

有意向購買Disney+的用戶比例很高：據(jù)去年8月中旬的調(diào)查，43%的美國人表示打算訂閱該流媒體。我們預(yù)計(jì)，Disney+將在上半年快速獲得訂閱增長，多虧了其與Verizon的合作，使其直接影響于1700萬用戶。與此同時(shí)，下半年將得益于其向新市場的擴(kuò)張，包括西歐（2020年3月）和東南亞（H2 2020）。

3)HBO Max will initially benefit from the transfer of existing AT&T customers and HBO subscribers, but it will struggle to add new subs beyond that. 

3) HBO Max將首先受益于現(xiàn)有的AT&T客戶和HBO的訂戶，但它會試圖在此基礎(chǔ)上拓展新的用戶。

That’s because AT&T’s branding is confusing to consumers and potentially waters down the premium brand equity of HBO itself. HBO will be under greater pressure to prove the broad-based value prop of its service to consumers at the same time as it reinforces the prestige value of HBO. by its expansion into new markets, including in Western Europe (March 2020) and Southeast Asia (H2 2020).

這是因?yàn)锳T&T的品牌會給用戶帶來困擾，這有削弱HBO自身品牌價(jià)值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。HBO將會面臨更大的壓力來證明其擴(kuò)張后的品牌質(zhì)量，同時(shí)需要維系其自身的品牌價(jià)值。在新市場拓展方面，它也將進(jìn)軍西歐和東南亞。

4）Apple TV+ will surpass Netflix to become the largest global SVOD.

4) Apple TV+將超越Netflix成為全球最大的SVOD。

•Apple will likely draw some sign-ups from among existing device owners, who collectively make up a global install base of 1.4 billiondevices. But offering the service free for a year with any new device purchase could independently deliver over 100 million subscribers if 50% or more of expected iPhone unit shipments in 2020 result in a consumer taking the free service. And while we would expect a percentage of trial subs to churn out after the first year, if Apple continuously offers its free one-year trial on new devices, it can likely grow the sub base on TV+ incrementally over time.

蘋果可能會吸引一些原本的蘋果硬件用戶，目前其全球的硬件設(shè)備安裝量達(dá)14億。如果50%以上的iphone新用戶都會選擇訂閱Apple TV+，那1年的免費(fèi)服務(wù)可以為蘋果帶來1億的訂閱用戶。但1年之后，一部分試用用戶不會再續(xù)訂該流媒體。如果蘋果持續(xù)為新用戶提供1年的免費(fèi)服務(wù)，那Apple TV+的會員數(shù)會繼續(xù)遞增。  

圖：SVOD流媒體影響力：美國受訪者聽說過某個(gè)流媒體服務(wù)占總受訪者的人數(shù)比

5. Facebook’s attempts to win back younger users with Snapchat and TikTok copycat apps will fail by the end of 2020, and it will lose younger users in the US at an even faster rate.

5. 到2020年底，內(nèi)容平臺們對年輕用戶爭奪戰(zhàn)中，Facebook將敗給Snapchat、TikTok等后起之秀，其年輕用戶將會更快流失

Facebook recently launched two new standalone apps targeted at the younger generations: Snapchat-esque Threads from Instagram (October 2019) and TikTok-like Lasso (November 2018). Both of these apps were widely panned for being transparent attempts to copy TikTok and Snapchat in order to replicate their success among teens, as the younger generation flees Facebook in the US:

Facebook最近推出了兩個(gè)針對年輕人的獨(dú)立應(yīng)用：源于Instagram的 snapchat-esque Threads(2019年10月)和與 TikTok 類似的應(yīng)用Lasso(2018年11月)。這兩個(gè)應(yīng)用程序被廣泛批評為試圖復(fù)制 TikTok 和Snapchat在年輕人中的成功，因?yàn)槊绹哪贻p人開始遠(yuǎn)離Facebook。

Core Facebook has lost users in the 0-11, 12-17, and 18-24 age groups every year since 2015, and eMarketer expects that trend to continue through 2023. We think Facebook’s attempt to reverse that trend with this pair of new apps will fail, and that in 2020 Facebook will lose young users at an even faster clip than in 2019. 

自從2015年開始，F(xiàn)acebook就開始流失0-11,12-17,18-24歲的年輕用戶，并且eMarketer預(yù)計(jì)這種趨勢將持續(xù)到2023年。我們認(rèn)為Facebook希望通過這些新的APP來逆轉(zhuǎn)這一勢頭的做法將會失敗，在此情形之下，2020年Facebook的年輕用戶流失速度還會加劇。

While Facebook’s Instagram famously and successfully copied Snapchat’s Stories in 2017 and sent Snap into a tailspin for over a year, the app’s positioning among US teens didn’t budge during that time。

2017年，眾所周知Instagram模仿了Snapchat的故事功能并成功將后者陷入了困境，但這并沒有動搖Snap在美國十幾歲的青少年心目中的地位。

Since Fall 2016, Snapchat has ranked as US teens’ favorite app, per Piper Jaffray. And, for its part, TikTok is considered the domain of Gen Zers and the short-form music-backed videos it’s popularized are widely known and referred to as “TikToks” rather than as something more general, like video clips or Stories — a degree of cultural entrenchment similar to that of now-defunct Vine. While Facebook might have helped kill Vine, it lacks the same degree of control over TikTok’s distribution and is also unlikely to act so aggressively against a competitor while under mounting antitrust scrutiny. 

自2016年秋季以來，Snapchat一直是美國青少年的最愛應(yīng)用程序。至于TikTok，它被認(rèn)為是Gen Zers領(lǐng)域的主流平臺，它的音樂背景類短視頻大受歡迎，但并不是作為更為廣義的視頻或故事領(lǐng)域類的爆款平臺——這與其文化壁壘有關(guān)，與之類似的網(wǎng)站Vine已經(jīng)被淘汰。Facebook可能一定程度上加速了Vine的死亡，但它對于TikTok的掌控權(quán)不及此前對Vine的控制，尤其是其自身面臨著不斷增多的反壟斷調(diào)查時(shí)。

圖：近年來13-19歲美國用戶的社交平臺使用偏好

Ultimately, we think Facebook will shutter at least one of its new apps next year, and the other shortly thereafter. The social company’s best bet is to continue milking Instagram and international markets for growth among younger users, although core Facebook is also seeing young people leave in certain international markets, like France and Germany, per eMarketer estimates.

最終，我們認(rèn)為Facebook接下來一年會至少關(guān)停其中一個(gè)新應(yīng)用，另一個(gè)應(yīng)用也會隨之停用。Facebook的最佳生存之道在于繼續(xù)優(yōu)化Instagram，融合全球市場的一些需求來拉新年輕用戶。據(jù)eMarketer觀察，在法國和德國，F(xiàn)acebook APP也在流失年輕用戶。

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